Read The Athletic’s NFL survivor pool picks for Week 12.
Most Survivor players still alive sailed through Week 9 as the Browns handily beat the Cardinals and the Saints took care of the Bears. Almost 90 percent of people still alive picked one of those two teams to win in Week 9. Things are getting trickier this week as many of our favorite teams are on bye and others we would love to use have already been expended. The Ravens, Bengals, Seahawks, Cowboys and Bills are the only teams with a point spread of at least five this week, and as noted below, most are off the table for us.
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These were the highest percentage rostered teams through Week 9: Baltimore, Buffalo, Kansas City, San Francisco, Miami, Buffalo, Seattle, Los Angeles Chargers and Cleveland. We won’t be writing up these elite teams anymore, but if you saved them, the Cowboys, Bills or Seahawks make for solid plays in Week 10.
Survivor Week 10 Strategy
Adam Gretz: This is probably the toughest week I have had making a pick. The top teams have largely been used, and you have three contenders (Kansas City, Miami and Philadelphia) all on bye weeks.
Using a pick on Atlanta could be intriguing, given its matchup with Arizona. But I am hesitant to take that bet given the likelihood of Kyler Murray giving the Cardinals an NFL-caliber quarterback (as opposed to the Clayton Tune experience a week ago). You also can not ignore the fact we just watched Atlanta lose to a team whose quarterback didn’t even know his team’s plays because he just joined the team four days prior.
The Cowboys might be the safest bet of the week given their matchup with the Giants, but they are not available to use here this week.
It is time to start rolling the dice. So I am going to just lean into that and hope that I can take advantage of some really bad quarterback situations around the NFL with my picks.
Renee Miller: We aren’t seeing as much diversity in pool picks as the available teams are fewer and fewer in number. I expect that to be the case this week too so it’s more important than ever to be aware of who your opponents can use. At this point in the season, you should be able to predict others’ behavior pretty well, though hopefully some wackos are taking unnecessary risks in your pool!
For example, if there are only a handful of teams left and they all have Dallas available, you can pretty much assume that’s the way they’ll go. Game theory would say to fade the Cowboys in favor of another strong option, putting you ahead if the Giants do manage to come out on top in Texas.
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What constitutes a strong option this week is much the same as always – at home, facing a team with a weak defense or weaker offense that is preferably non-divisional. And that is really the key to a game theory play – you can’t fade the clear favorite if all you have left to use is someone like Jacksonville, Detroit or Minnesota. Don’t put yourself in a position to roll with a team whose game is super risky just to go against the grain.
Week 10 Chalk Picks
All odds from BetMGM. Pick percentage from SurvivorGrid.
| Team | Opponent | Pick % | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
vs. NY Giants | 45.4% | -16.5 | |
vs. Houston | 37.4% | -6.5 | |
vs. Denver | 5.2% | -7.5 | |
vs. Green Bay | 3.4% | -3.5 | |
vs. Carolina | 2.1% | -4 |
Adam Gretz: Colts over Patriots in Germany
After getting two of the NFL’s best teams (Kansas City and Miami) a week ago, football fans in Germany are going to be treated to the quarterback matchup of Gardner Minshew vs. Mac Jones. Not exactly enticing and probably not the best way to sell the game to an overseas audience. But as uninspiring as this matchup might be for potential new fans, it is even worse for Patriots fans, and I think this is an under-the-radar game for a potential rout.
Simply put, the Patriots stink and do not do anything well.
They are 31st in points scored, 26th in points against and have scored more than 20 points just once all year.
While the Colts defense isn’t great, I don’t trust Jones or this collection of Patriots wide receivers to do anything significant. The Colts have also quietly put together a decent offense. They have scored at least 20 points in their first nine games, and Minshew has played respectable ball while filling in for Anthony Richardson. The Colts are a small favorite in this game, but I am extremely confident in this pick, given the matchup.
Renee Miller: Bengals over Texans
After a rocky start to the season, the Bengals are hitting their stride. Taking down the Bills and 49ers in succession is an impressive feat. I think it’s more impressive than CJ Stroud’s big day against the Bucs in Week 9. Houston’s defense has improved this season, especially in the secondary, but they just gave up 37 points to the Bucs.
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Expect a heavy dose of Joe Mixon to dominate the game plan as Houston has been dismantled by dual-threat running backs this year. With Ja’Marr Chase questionable with a back injury, I’ll note that the Bengals have plenty of depth at receiver, with Tee Higgins looking great and tight ends Irv Smith Jr. and Drew Sample proving capable when needed (especially in the end zone). Houston is one of the best matchups for opposing tight ends so they could factor heavily in the game plan this week.
Overall, the Bengals are 7.5-point home favorites because they run a balanced offense and effective defense. Give me an elite team putting it all together as my survivor pick anytime. I can’t compare the Texans to the Patriots, unfortunately – Adam picked against one of, if not the worst, teams in the league. Stroud, Tank Dell and Co. are an exciting team to watch this season, but they’re still overmatched on the road vs. the Bengals.
Week 10 Contrarian Picks
Adam Gretz: Jets over Raiders
If there is ever a week to pick the Jets, this is probably it. I know the Raiders are coming off the high of winning the first game under Antonio Pierce, and I know Josh McDaniels is no longer there to mess things up in games, but this seems like the type of game where the Jets’ defense forces a couple of turnovers, makes life hell for a rookie quarterback and gives a bad Jets offense some short fields to work with.
The Raiders’ only wins this season have come against Denver, Green Bay, New England and the Giants. The combined record of those four teams: 10-24. Outside of the Giants game, none of them were extremely convincing wins, either.
Even if Aaron Rodgers makes a miraculous return before the end of the season, the Jets have limited future value, so this is a good week to consider them, given the matchup.
Renee Miller: Bears over Panthers
One consistent thing that has worked most of the time this season (though I’m still cursing Dallas) has been to pick against the Cardinals and Panthers. With Kyler Murray almost surely returning this week, that might no longer be the case for the Cardinals, but the Panthers have been hopeless on both sides of the ball. Giving up the most points per game in the league but scoring the seventh-fewest points per game is a losing formula.
The Bears have had their ups and downs but have a good shot at getting a few starting players back this week on offense, starting with Justin Fields. Fields was getting his groove back when the thumb dislocation derailed him in Week 6. I’ll feel better about this pick if it is Fields starting because his ability to scramble and pick up big gains with his legs is a plus against a Panthers team that gives up the fourth-most rushing touchdowns in the league. Fields might not be the most prolific passer, either, but he boasts the second-highest touchdown rate (6.8 percent).
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My concern with the Bears most weeks is their defense, or should I say, the lack of defense. When you’re playing against a team that can’t get out of its own way most of the time, that’s a much smaller concern. Look for Fields and the Bears to celebrate a triumphant return at home on primetime Thursday Night Football.
(Photo of Jonathan Taylor: Michael Hickey/Getty Images)
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